A baggage our next leaders must carry
Those who are 40 years old today may still experience the lingering effects of the pandemic at age 85. NEDA estimates the present and future costs of the pandemic at 41.4 trillion in pesos in net present value terms.
The forecast is that consumption and investments are likely to be lower in the next ten years due to the reduced demand in sectors that require social distancing, such as tourism, restaurants, and public transportation. Lower consumption is seen to cause a 4.5 trillion pesos estimated loss and 21.3 trillion pesos in private investment and returns. (neda.gov.ph)
Brighter prospects for the economy will be heading towards the pre-pandemic trajectory by the tenth year. The country’s next Presidents will face problems of reduction in future wages and productivity arising from the suspension of face-to-face classes and the impact of lower quality of education from online and other types of distance learning during the pandemic.
NEDA says the one-year closure cost the economy 230 billion pesos in 2020, and its impact over the next 40 years is estimated at 10.7 trillion. The effect on productivity is likely to be permanent over the person’s lifetime.
With barely nine months left in his presidency, Duterte is not expected to deliver miracles for the country. Whatever legacy he leaves when he steps down from office will be accompanied by a record of a damaged economy and a whooping P11.6 trillion debt to be paid by future generations.
As Presidential aspirants file their certificates of candidacy, it is hoped that the candidates will not simply pay lip service to the deep-seated problems of the country that the pandemic has aggravated.
We have heard motherhood statements in the past, but none of them translated into progress at pace with our neighboring Asian countries. Cory’s “Tama na! Sobra na! Palitan na!, Ramos’ “Philippine 2000”, Erap’s “Erap Para sa Mahirap”, Noynoy’s“Kung Walang Corrupt, Walang Mahirap” , or Duterte’s “Tapang at Malasakit” were the nicest promises ever made, but none of these prepared us well to face this pandemic. International observers branded the country as “the worst place to be amid COVID” or “the worst in pandemic response.” These words touched the ego of our current leaders and put them in a defensive mode.
To pick up the pieces, the next President should have enough humility to accept the actual state of our country. Rather than seeking the country’s attention by spewing invectives and speaking Bellsybabble, the next President should speak words that unite and extend a hand that cares rather than kills.