Atty. Gregorio B. Austral, CPA
Are surveys pre-conditioning our minds?
The Supreme Court in one case elaborated on the effects of pre-election surveys on voter preferences. The Court noted that election surveys have been critiqued for amplifying the notion of an election as a “horse race” and for reducing elections to the lowest common denominator of percentage points or a candidate’s erstwhile share in the vote market rather than focusing on issues, principles, programs, and platforms. The possible effects of surveys on voter behavior are summarized by the Court in this wise:
First, there is the bandwagon effect where “electors rally to support the candidate leading in the polls.” This assumes that knowledge of a popular ‘tide’ will likely change voting intentions in favor of the frontrunner, that many electors feel more comfortable supporting a popular choice or that people accept the perceived collective wisdom of others as being enough reason for supporting a candidate.”
Second, there is the underdog effect where “electors rally to support the candidate trailing in the polls.” This shift can be motivated by sympathy for the perceived underdog.
Third, there is the motivating effect where “individuals who had not intended to vote are persuaded to do so,” having been alerted to the fact of an election’s imminence.
Fourth, there is also the demotivating effect where “voters abstain from voting out of certainty that their candidate or party will win.”
Fifth, there are reports of a behavior known as strategic voting where “voting is influenced by the chances of winning.”
Lastly, there is also the theory of a free-will effect where “voters cast their ballots to prove the polls wrong.”
The Court observed that of the six effects, the bandwagon effect has a particular resonance and has been of concern. Surveys, or opinion polls, “by directly influencing individual-level support . . . , can be self-fulfilling prophecies and produce opinion cascades. Poll’s prediction may come to pass not only because it measures public opinion but also because it may influence public opinion.” There is that observed human tendency to conform. Three (3) mechanisms through which survey results may induce conformity have been posited: (1) normative social influence, or people’s desire to adopt the majority position in order to feel liked and accepted or believe they are on the winning team;
(2) informational social influence, or people learning from the ‘wisdom of crowds’ via social proof because they ‘believe that others’ interpretation of an ambiguous situation is more accurate . . . and will help [them] choose an appropriate course of action’; and
(3) people resolving cognitive dissonance by switching to the side they infer is going to win based on the poll.
Another legitimate concern observed by the Supreme Court based on studies is that the bandwagon effect, as a form of conformity, is the mirror image of the false consensus effect, where people misperceive that their own behaviors and attitudes are more popular than they actually are. In the political domain, one mechanism underlying the false consensus effect is wishful thinking – people gaining utility from thinking their candidate is ahead or their opinions are popular. The bandwagon effect induced by election surveys assumes even greater significance in considering the health of a democracy. Integral to our appreciation of democracy is the recognition that democracy is fundamentally deliberative. It is rooted in the exchange and dialogue of ideas. Accordingly, free expression, not least of all from the minority and from those who do not conform, i.e., those who dissent and criticize, is indispensable.
In deciding the case, the Supreme Court ruled that Resolution No. 9674 addresses the reality that an election survey is formative as it is descriptive. It can be a means to shape the preference of voters and, thus, the outcome of elections. In the hands of those whose end is to get a candidate elected, it is a means for such end and partakes of the nature of election propaganda. Accordingly, the imperative of “fair” elections impels their regulation. (Social Weather Stations, Inc. and Pulse Asia, Inc. vs. Commission on Elections, G.R. No. 208062, April 07, 2015)