EDITORIAL
Preparing for ENSO
In mid-2023, PAG-ASA already raised the El Niño Alert
status warning that the country would experience a 55% to
80% probability between June and August last year. By April
this year, 56 areas from Luzon and parts of the Visayas and
Mindanao may face potential drought. Mindanao is expecting
mostly dry spells.This was the forecast of PAG-ASA, the
country’s weather bureau, last year.
Now that the sun’s scorching heat is becoming
unbearable, are we ready to battle this weather crisis?
It may be recalled that Bohol was placed under a state
of calamity when the province and the rest of the country
experienced the El Niño phenomenon. When the state of
calamity was declared on October 15, 2019, damage to
agriculture and fisheries had already reached an estimated
P179 million. Several towns were also placed in a state of
calamity, as 38 out of 48 towns experienced a shortage of
water and food.
Anecdotal reports say that Boholano farmers have
experienced low rice harvest in the early part of 2024.
Rappler.com reports that the Department of Agriculture
estimated on February 25 that El Niño has caused at least
P357.4 million worth of damage and losses to farms in the
Ilocos Region, Mimaropa, Western Visayas, and Zamboanga
Peninsula.
In its briefing on March 7, however, PAG-ASA reported
that the El Niño phenomenon has started to weaken, and
neutral conditions may return in April-May-June 2024, but
there is an “increasing probability” of La Niña developing in
June-July-August 2024.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) describes
this weather phenomenon as ENSO or the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation, which it defines as “a recurring natural
phenomenon characterized by fluctuating ocean
temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes
in the atmosphere.”
Critics noted that the current administration’s response
to El Niño is delayed, with planning being done when it is
already on our doorsteps.
What about plans for La Niña? As we experience floods
year in and year out, our disaster response has almost
always been reactive rather than proactive. Whether it’s
disaster relief, evacuation, or rebuilding damaged
infrastructure facilities, we have all sorts of short-term and
band-aid solutions.
ENSO is part of the challenges we face due to global
warming. The problem calls for global action. As a
developing country prone to natural calamities, we suffer
more damage compared to other countries.
When the problem is expected to persist beyond our
means of solving it, we tend to adopt resiliency and
adaptation strategies to survive. Just like a boiling frog, we
tend to respond quickly when suddenly put in boiling water.
If the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a
boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked
to death.
In the battle against climate change, we fervently hope
that we do not become the boiling frogs.