by: Donald Sevilla
DEBUNKING THE CLOUD SEEDING MINDSET
A CONCRETE SCIENCE?
Various studies have pointed out that cloud seeding increases chances of rain by as much as 10-35%. Assuming that it does at its maximum, is 35% sufficient to address the water shortàge claimed by proponènts to guarantee land preparatiòns for planting?
With only a minimal volume of rainwater generated against the total arable land for farming, is this enough? But how much volume of water does our ricefields need ?
Our planting preparations start from as early as May to October depènding on the area. Different localities have differeñt contingençies such as access to irrigation facilities and the like. Some plant earlier than others.
Yet even with extensive cloud seeding operations, it does not guarantee success. Winds can blow seeded clouds away from areas targeted causing rains to fall elsewhere. Atmospheric conditions can change instantly causing precipitation to dissipate.
While theoretically it can add to or indùce rains, in actuality, is it worth the cost? Are the 50 hrs allotted, enough to give us water? How many more hours do we need before we can call it sufficient? Couldn’t we suck down an endless pit putting more good money after bad?
The rains are forthcoming as we now see, cloud seeding or not. But with meager financial resources at our disposal, we must act sparingly with our expenditures. We are yet in mid-June and we stil have ample time until October to catch up and wait for adequate rains to come as forecasted.
THE ONSET OF LA NIÑA
The Philippine weather bureau PAGASA has officially declared the end of El Niño and forecasted the start of the rainý season. As such, preparations are underway by various government agencies to mitigate the impact of the onslaught of La Niña.
While others are busy preparing for the onset of rains, we in Bohol are stuck to adopting mitigating measures to address El Niño. Aren”t we too late?
We continue to insist on seeding clouds without sufficient empirical data to baçk us up. We claim that the volume of dowñpour as a result of the scattered thunderstorms around the province is not enough while maintaining that our ràin measuring instruments are situated only in Panglao.
While different areas experience different levels of downpour, are the Panglao instrument readings representative of the entire province? Definitely not. Therefore relying on those to paint a picture of the rain volume provincewide is not only scientifically unsound but flawed.
Our dams not filling up to spillover levels are quite understandable despite rains, since the release of water by the NIA has been started and calibrated in phases to irrigate nearby ricefields. To use this as an argument to justifý continued drought is simplistic despite declarations to the contrary.
Yet, more than the purported data gathered to justify further cloud seeding operations, we have to look into the economic side of it and examine the contract entered into by the Capitol to gain an appreciation on whether it is advantageous or disadvantageous to the people’s money.
A DISADVANTAGEOUS CONTRACT?
As repòrted, Capitol’s contract with PEGASUS, the cloud seèding operator guaràntees à minimum flight time of 25 hrs. in a period of 30 days. This means that we are obliged to pay the contractor 25 hrs. as gùaranteed, whether it is actually flown or not within that period.
Moreover, included in the 50 hrs contract wìth PEGASUS are 2 hrs. of ferry flight which we assume covers the time to bring the aircraft to Bohol and back to its base of origin.This is construed to mean “mobilization” and “demobilization” like in other contracts. But this reduces the effective flying time of 50 hrs we paid for to actually 48 hrs.
Furthermore, for every 30 day period of the contract, there is a required 1 day off every week for maintenance purposes, making it only 26 effective days of operation within which to accomplish the guaranteed 25hrs. flight time.
All these considered, couldn’t we have negotiated for a better deal?
OBSTINANCE DESPITE CONDITIONS TO THE CONTRARY
Late last year, directives from the Office of Civil Defense and the Office of the President through the Executive Secretary as agreed in a cabinet cluster meeting to tackle El Niño, discouraged the use of cloud seeding as a solution.
PAGASA has categorically stated “that cloud seeding will not end a drought although it may provide some increases in precipitation during drought periods.”
But why the continued insistence to proceed by Bohol officials? Are they deeply committed to the transaction putting pressure on themselves? The contract can be called off, renegotiated or adjusted due to prevailing current conditions that no longer require it. In other words, its timing for implementation is off as we are now experiencing rains.
While we do not wish to engage in a heated debate to justify or not cloud seeding, all we can say is, if we simply look at the figures, cost-wise, it is not money well spent.
In the whole country at the moment, we are the only ones seeding clouds during the rainy season. The PAGASA regional office has even stated that Bohol’s cloud seeding efforts have no coordination with them.
But in a rather arrogant defensive posture, PGBH has issued a statement that PAGASA has no jurisdiction over its cloud seeding opèrations. Yet we rely on the weather bureau’s forecasts añd reports to guide our strategies.
Nevertheless, our actions have led to more questions than answers. Lacking transparency and definitive data on which to base our decisions, we are making our cloud seeding undertaking controversial to public opinion..
CONCLUSION
To sum up, cloud seeding is not a solution but merely a pallative relief. Our problems do ñot go away with it. Devoid of strong scientific basis as tö its effectiveness, it is not highly recommended. The only way to end a drought is for rains to consistently come and drench the parched earth.
Our total hectarage dediçated to rice,is not prepared and planted altogether. Who says we have to plant and finish all these at the same time to create a rush? This being the case, we can still plant up to October and remain on track for that particular cropping season.
Cloud seeding is obviously not the answer, but moré rains are. As we are moving towards the next weather cycle, it will surely come.
Prudence and a judicious handling of our resources will make us wait for the coming adequate rainfall. But by being stubborn, our actions have become a classic example of “haste makes waste.”
NO TO CLOUD SEEDING DURING THE RAINY SEASON!