OIL CRISIS – The recent outbreak of war involving Iran has triggered a sharp spike in global oil prices, with Brent crude surging nearly 30% in a week to over $92 per barrel due to major supply disruptions. The conflict has effectively halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of the world’s oil, and forced key producers like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq to shut down production or halt exports. (Contributed photo)
By DAVE SUAN ALBARADO
Gasoline stations across Bohol are already raising pump prices days ahead of the official adjustment window, as the escalating Middle East war involving the United States, Israel and Iran sends global crude past $90 per barrel and sets the stage for what could be the most punishing fuel price increase in recent Philippine history — one that threatens to push diesel toward P90 pesos per liter and pile fresh misery on drivers, commuters and ordinary families still struggling with the high cost of living.
The early price movements — breaking from the standard Tuesday adjustment schedule — signal the severity of the coming shock.
A white station in Garcia Hernandez municipality has already priced diesel at P84 per liter, with no fuel product selling below P70.
In Jagna, diesel has climbed to P77.60 per liter and unleaded gasoline to P65.10 per liter.
In Tagbilaran City, Caltex has moved gasoline to P73 per liter and diesel to P71 per liter — increases that operators say are unavoidable given surging wholesale prices at fuel depots in Cebu, from which most Bohol stations source their supply.
“We were compelled to raise prices after wholesale prices at the Cebu depot — our fuel supplier — also went up,” one Bohol station operator said. “We had to adjust to cover the increased cost of the supply we already purchased.”
The adjustments arriving on a Saturday — well before the customary Tuesday repricing — underscore how rapidly the Iran-driven oil shock is working its way through the supply chain and into local pump prices.
HISTORIC ADJUSTMENT LOOMS TUESDAY
The worst is yet to come.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced on March 6, 2026 that next Tuesday’s official fuel price adjustment — driven by the Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict that has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and rattled global crude markets — will be staggering in scale.
Marcos cited projections showing diesel rising by P17.28 per liter, gasoline by P7.48 per liter, and kerosene by as much as P32.35 per liter in a single adjustment.
The Department of Energy (DOE) placed the figures even higher in its own preliminary estimates: diesel up by P19 to P23 per liter, gasoline by P9 to P13 per liter, and kerosene by P31 to P35 per liter — with one additional Mean of Platts Singapore trading session still to be counted before Tuesday’s final computation.
The DOE warned that if the conflict persists and staggered implementation is not strictly enforced, diesel could approach or breach the P90-per-liter threshold — a price level that would have been unthinkable just months ago.
Brent crude settled around $92 to $93 per barrel on March 6, up sharply over recent sessions on fears of a prolonged regional war and sustained disruptions to Gulf oil production and transport.
The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula — carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply.
Threats to shipping through the strait, along with attacks on regional energy infrastructure and disruptions to production in key Gulf states, have combined to drive crude prices to levels not seen in months.
To soften the blow, oil companies have agreed to coordinate staggered price hikes with the DOE rather than implement the full adjustment in a single round — a measure designed to prevent a sudden spike in pump prices from triggering panic buying and market disruption.
A preliminary round of adjustments effective March 3 had already seen gasoline rise by P1.90 per liter, diesel by P1.20 per liter and kerosene by P1.50 per liter, continuing a streak of consecutive weekly increases.
DRIVERS’ FEAR
For Bohol’s jeepney and tricycle drivers — who depend on diesel and gasoline as their primary operating cost — the projections are not abstract economic data.
They represent a direct and immediate threat to income that was already razor-thin before the Iran war escalated.
Marlon Gargasola, a jeepney driver plying the Loon-Tagbilaran City route, said the cost of keeping his vehicle on the road has already risen sharply, with the full weight of next week’s hike yet to land.
“Before, I needed about P300 to fill up. Now it’s already P350 — and sometimes I only have five passengers the whole trip,” Gargasola told DYTR in Bisaya. “The fuel keeps going up but the passengers aren’t increasing.”
Edgar Sanchez, president of the City Tricab Tricycle Drivers Association (CTTDA) — which has more than 60 members operating in Tagbilaran City — described the current situation as “extremely bitter,” with the convergence of soaring food prices and rising fuel costs compressing already thin daily earnings to a breaking point.
“Even before the Middle East war erupted, our take-home pay was already low. I myself only clear around P600 a day — and we still have families to support,” Sanchez said in an interview. “From food to fuel, everything is expensive now.”
CTTDA members are now pushing Tagbilaran City officials to convert the current minimum fare of P15.00 for the first kilometer — which has been in force only on a provisional basis since 2022 — into a permanent rate.
They are also calling for the per-kilometer charge for succeeding distances to be raised from P2.00 to P5.00.
Under current rules, students, senior citizens and persons with disabilities are entitled to a 20 percent discount, paying P12.00 for the first kilometer and P1.60 per succeeding kilometer.
A formal meeting between tricycle association leaders and the SangguniangPanlungsod Committee on Public Utilities — chaired by Councilor Edi Borja — is scheduled for Monday, March 9, 2026, to take up the fare increase petition ahead of the Tuesday price adjustment.
Sanchez and other transport group leaders are not alone in pursuing relief.
Public utility vehicle organizations across the Philippines are preparing to file provisional fare increase petitions with the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board, citing the mounting diesel burden as unsustainable at current fares.
MALACAÑANG ORDERS AUSTERITY MEASURES
The Marcos administration moved Friday to signal it is treating the oil shock as a national emergency, issuing Memorandum Circular No. 114 — a sweeping directive ordering energy and fuel austerity measures across the entire Executive Branch and extending guidance to local government units nationwide.
Under the circular, government agencies under the Executive Department are directed to implement a temporary four-day workweek, effective next week, to reduce commuting and government vehicle usage.
All official travel that can be conducted through online platforms — including meetings, consultations, briefings and other activities not requiring physical presence — must be moved to virtual formats immediately.
Non-essential trainings, seminars and out-of-town travel, particularly those covering repetitive topics or content that can be delivered remotely, are to be canceled or postponed.
Agencies are directed to consolidate the movements of officials and staff to avoid unnecessary vehicle dispatch, and to tighten controls over the use of government cars and heavy equipment to keep fuel consumption in check.
Energy conservation mandates inside government buildings include capping office air conditioning temperature at 24 degrees Celsius, reducing artificial lighting — especially during noon breaks — and using staircases instead of elevators wherever operationally feasible.
The administration is also monitoring price thresholds that would trigger targeted economic interventions.
Should Dubai crude breach $80 per barrel on a sustained basis, the government is prepared to deploy direct fuel subsidies or cash aid to the most vulnerable sectors: public utility vehicle drivers, farmers and fisherfolk.
Marcos has separately asked Congress to consider temporary cuts to fuel excise taxes to cushion the price impact, and directed the DOE and other agencies to pursue active enforcement against hoarding and profiteering in the petroleum supply chain.
The public, too, has been called on to do its part.
In a public appeal accompanying the directive, Marcos urged Filipino households and businesses to adopt conservation habits — carpooling, reducing unnecessary trips, limiting air conditioning use — warning that a prolonged fuel price crisis risks cascading into higher fares, food prices, electricity and water rates, and the cost of basic commodities across the board.
The DOE has sought to prevent a self-fulfilling crisis by reassuring the public that domestic fuel supply remains adequate and urging consumers and station operators not to engage in panic buying that could worsen volatility and artificial shortages.