by – Glen Palaca Hubahib, Esq.
The Year of Living Dangerously:
The Year of the Fire Horse occurs every 60 years. It is known for intense energy, dramatic change, and unpredictability, combining the Horse’s independent, dynamic nature with the destructive yet transformative power of fire for the superstitious. And if you marry those characteristics with the current events then we have kinetic like explosion.
Oil Traffic. Source: JP Morgan via Marketwatch
After the decapitation strike that neutralized Iran’s senior leadership that did not result in the regime change, the U.S. and Israel went up in the escalation ladder by increasing their bombing runs. Iran, in retaliation widens their horizontal escalation by targeting Gulf Countries – Qatar, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia – US military bases and energy facilities. What observers feared is the deliberate targeting of water desalination plants. These Gulf countries are highly dependent on these desalination plants for their water drinking needs. If uncontrolled they might face famine and massive die off as a result.
Additionally, Iran converted the Strait of Hormuz as a toll booth that the largest ship insurer, The Lloyds of London, will not cover any ship in the Persian Gulf because of too much risk. Hence, the near vertical spike of the crude oil prices hovering around $100 per barrel in a matter of 4 weeks. What is not in the conversation of the news wires and prime time news is that the Gulf Countries also supplies roughly 20% of world’s fertilizer needs. Hence, for an agricultural country like the Philippines we are facing a doubling whammy, economic recession and food shortages especially rice.
According to John Mearsheimer, Political Scientist and Professor at the University of Chicago, Iran has the escalation dominance because it can inflict pain to the US and Israel thru asymmetric warfare using the drones and hypersonic missiles and the ability to bring the world economy down. Which comes now to the big elephant in the room, will the U.S. or Israel use nuclear tactical weapons (1 kiloton or less) to end the war? The other side of the coin is, if Iran was able to enrich Uranium to 60% in 2021 then is it plausible that they were able to reach the weapons grade of 90% in the last few years?
Partial Shutdown:
The U.S. Congress has not yet fully funded the operations of the Department of Homeland Security. Hence, Transportation Security Administration is experiencing widespread staff call-outs because they have not been paid resulting in long lines at the airport’s security check line. Likewise, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services processing time for petitions, application for green cards and, etc. has been affected resulting in the delay of processing and application approvals.
Airport long lines. Source: USA Today
[Note: Glen Palaca Hubahib is admitted to practice law in California and the Philippines. He also holds an Electrical Engineering and MBA degrees. He is a regular resource person of the top rated “Open Forum” program of Ardy Araneta-Batoy & Gloria Leodivica Araneta at station DYTR. The article is for information only and is not legal advice. Send your comments to the author at hubahibg@gmail.com.]