El Niño in Bohol: The Bad, the Good, and What We Do Now
By Cong. Arthur Yap
(Murang Kuryente Partylist Representative, Former Agriculture Secretary, Bohol Governor and Third District Representative)
El Niño is already here, and Bohol’s worst months are still ahead. As of October 15, the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Information System had recorded P291.96 million in drought-linked crop damage, affecting 10,812 farmers in the 29 of 48 towns that have reported. PAGASA’s climate outlook for Central Visayas forecasts a dry spell in January and February and drought by March 2027.
Time and money are short. The question is what we can still do, with what we already have, to keep food on Boholano tables.
The bad: rice, water and income
The damage is concentrated. Rice accounts for P281.09 million of the losses. Carmen alone reported P110.7 million, followed by San Miguel (P53.2 million), Sagbayan (P19.3 million), Batuan (P16.1 million), Inabanga (P12.5 million) and Bilar (P10.9 million).
Half our rice land waits on rain. Only 24,000 of our 47,000 hectares of rice fields are irrigated (Inquirer), and 59% of irrigation service areas are vulnerable (Provincial Government).
Fish and meat are at risk too. BFAR warns that tilapia, bangus and shrimp ponds suffer in hot, shallow water (Daily Tribune). Weaker corn harvests may also raise feed costs for poultry raisers (The Poultry Site).
The real cost is income. Every lost harvest is a farm family falling into the lower rung of the poverty ladder.
The good: real data, but only if we use it
But we must also consider that fewer tropical cyclones form during El Niño, PAGASA notes. Bohol also enters this drought from strength, with 94.9% rice self-sufficiency in 2025. Above all, we have warnings. That lead time is worth something but only if we use it. Real data is only valuable when acted upon.
What past droughts teach
Bohol declared drought calamities in 2016 and 2024, each time after the damage was counted. We must act on the forecast instead, as the PDRRMC recommended in 2023. We must “insure” before planting, as the province did with a P30 million PCIC premium in 2024. We cannot just lean on cloud seeding, which brings little rain when there are no seedable clouds or forest cover.
A 120-day plan for Bohol
The window is November and December, before dry-season planting. Every step recommendation I am putting here uses programs and funds that already exist.
1. Make our dams carry the load. PhilRice advises irrigated areas to keep planting to cover for areas that cannot. We must plant in sync and on NIA’s water schedule. That means planting every hectare that Malinao can water in Pilar, Ubay, San Miguel, Dagohoy and Alicia; Bayongan in Ubay, San Miguel, Trinidad and Dagohoy; and Capayas in Ubay.
2. Plant rice that finishes before March. PhilRice recommends PSB Rc 10, NSIC Rc 480, Rc 594 and Rc 596 for rainfed and drought-prone fields, with certified seed through accredited growers and LGUs. Direct seeding helps the crop escape drought so we must avoid “sabwag tanom.”
3. Stretch every liter. Alternate wetting and drying cuts irrigation water by 15–30% without lowering yield when done right. The rice field must be allowed to dry out partially before re-flooding, instead of keeping it continuously submerged.
4. Move rainfed farms to short-cycle vegetables. The Province should fund seedbeds and portable water storage drums now, so rainfed farmers can shift to vegetables, legumes and root crops before the dry spell.
5. Insure every planting. RSBSA-listed farmers get premium-free PCIC cover, but only if they enroll each season so they must enroll now. Municipal agriculturists should enroll them barangay by barangay with the Mayors taking the lead.
6. Protect protein. Pond operators should lower stocking density, harvest early and use aerators; livestock need shade and water.
7. Buy Bohol. Households, schools, hospitals and resorts that buy from Bohol farmers keep them solvent enough to plant again. So let’s support Bohol farmers.
For the Province and towns, three steps cost little: 1) Declare a state of calamity now, so quick response funds move before the dry season. 2) Fund PCIC premiums alongside the enrollment drives. 3) And require all 47 towns and Tagbilaran to report crop, livestock and fishery losses, so help goes where it is needed.
Prepare now, Act Now
We cannot stop El Niño. But the water we store, the farms we insure and the preparations we make are ours to control.
Now, not in March. We must act on the forecast, not on the damage. The steps I have described are not complicated but, “we must act now.”