The effects of El Niño are expected to continue affecting Bohol’s agricultural sector, with a possible decline in farm production and higher prices of agricultural commodities, according to the chief of the Office of the Provincial Agriculturist.
Liza Quirog said the province should prepare for the continuing effects of the weather phenomenon, particularly the anticipated reduction in rainfall in the coming months.
Quirog said she was informed by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or PAGASA, that rainfall patterns in September 2026 would occur in phases, with periods of above-normal rainfall expected in parts of the country.
But she warned that the temporary increase in rainfall should not be interpreted as the end of El Niño.
PAGASA’s latest assessment says a moderate to strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific.
Climate models indicate that the phenomenon could continue through the first half of 2027 and could reach a very strong state before the end of 2026.
PAGASA has also warned that El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, which can result in dry spells and drought in some areas.
At the same time, localized periods of above-normal rainfall can still occur, particularly during the southwest monsoon or Habagat.
Quirog said the more significant drought conditions are expected to emerge around October and could persist into the first quarter of 2027.
Agricultural production at risk
The prolonged disruption in rainfall could have a direct impact on Bohol’s farmers, particularly those relying on rain-fed agriculture.
Quirog said there could be a considerable reduction in the production of agricultural commodities if insufficient rainfall persists.
A decline in farm production could eventually affect market prices because reduced harvests would mean tighter supplies of vegetables, rice and other agricultural products.
“The lack of rainfall coming will affect the supply of agricultural products as a result of the drought,” Quirog said.
She said farmers who planted their crops in June may still be able to obtain a modest harvest because their crops had more time to develop before the effects of the dry conditions intensified.
Farmers who planted in July, however, are expected to be more affected by the developing drought, she said.
The timing of rainfall is particularly important for agricultural production because insufficient water during critical stages of crop development can reduce yields even when farmers are able to plant normally.
PAGASA is advising farmers to conserve water, maintain irrigation systems, harvest rainwater and consider drought-tolerant crops and soil-moisture conservation measures as El Niño persists.
The weather bureau’s current outlook also illustrates why rainfall conditions can vary considerably even during El Niño.
PAGASA’s September forecasts show that some areas may receive above-normal rainfall while other parts of the country, including portions of the Visayas during some forecast periods, could experience below-normal rainfall.
Possible impact on food prices
For consumers, the potential reduction in agricultural production could translate into higher prices if supply falls while demand remains steady.
The provincial agriculture office is therefore monitoring the situation as the province enters the months when the effects of El Niño are expected to become more pronounced.
Quirog said the provincial government and agricultural stakeholders would need to continue monitoring rainfall, planting schedules and farm production to help mitigate the effects on farmers and consumers.
‘Bugas Bol-anon’ price under review
Meanwhile, Quirog also addressed concerns over the price of Bugas Bol-anon, a locally promoted rice product intended to provide consumers with a more affordable rice option.
Some consumers have complained that the price of Bugas Bol-anon has increased and that the product is no longer as affordable as it was previously.
Quirog said the price was adjusted by the technical working group following a review of the expenses incurred in producing the rice.
The review took into account production-related costs, she said, resulting in an adjustment of the selling price.
The price change has nevertheless prompted questions from consumers who had viewed Bugas Bol-anon as an affordable alternative in the market.
Quirog said she would provide feedback on the concerns and the changes in the pricing of Bugas Bol-anon.
The issue comes as agricultural officials face the additional challenge of maintaining food supplies and keeping prices manageable amid an El Niño episode that PAGASA expects to persist into 2027.
For Bohol, the combination of potentially lower farm output, reduced water availability and higher production costs could place additional pressure on both farmers and consumers in the months ahead.
PAGASA’s latest agricultural guidance urges farmers to adjust farm activities based on weather forecasts and continue monitoring advisories as the El Niño episode develops.