BY DAVE SUAN ALBARADO

The provincial government of Bohol is set to begin cloud-seeding operations this week as officials race to bring rain to drought-hit agricultural areas and cushion the impact of an intensifying El Niño that has already damaged crops and affected thousands of farmers.

Provincial Administrator Asteria Caberte said the notice to proceed for the winning contractor was expected to be issued, clearing the way for the operation to begin once the aircraft, personnel and weather conditions are in place.

Representatives of the Philippine Air Force and the Department of Agriculture’s Bureau of Soils and Water Management are expected in Bohol to oversee and support the operation, with the Bohol-Panglao International Airport designated as the operations center.

The provincial government is funding about 31 hours of cloud-seeding flights costing millions of pesos, while another 29 hours will be covered by the Department of Agriculture, bringing the planned operation to 60 flight hours.

The move comes as the province confronts mounting agricultural losses from prolonged dry conditions.

The latest provincial assessment puts reported damage to Bohol’s agri-fishery sector at P62.77 million, with 2,494 farmers affected, according to figures presented to the Technical Working Group of the Provincial El Niño Task Force.

But the figure is provisional.

Only 10 of Bohol’s 48 local government units had submitted initial damage assessments as of Sept. 21, 2026, meaning the reported losses could rise substantially as more municipalities submit their figures.

The provincial government is continuing to collect damage reports and evaluate assistance for affected farmers and other agricultural stakeholders.

The reported damage includes losses in several municipalities, with the provincial assessment identifying Valencia and Dimiao among the areas reporting the largest losses.

The scale of the damage has added pressure on provincial officials to move quickly with measures intended to increase water availability before agricultural losses deepen.

P5 Million Released

The provincial government earlier set aside P5 million from its disaster risk reduction and management fund for cloud seeding.

Caberte announced at the Sept. 17 meeting of the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council that the procurement had been placed under an emergency procedure because of the urgency of the drought situation.

The allocation was estimated to be sufficient for about 31 hours of cloud-seeding flights, according to the Philippine Information Agency.

Two companies — Pegasus and Fliteline — had expressed interest in carrying out the operation.

The provincial government also planned to coordinate with Aboitiz InfraCapital to explore ways of reducing aircraft-service costs.

A separate P7 million allocation from the Department of Agriculture-Bureau of Soils and Water Management was undergoing procurement for cloud seeding at the regional level.

Bohol had been preparing for cloud seeding months before the current operation.

The provincial government identified it as one of its planned interventions after PAGASA warned of the potential development of a strong to very strong El Niño.

Caberte said the operation will not be limited to rice-producing areas.

The target is the wider agricultural sector, including areas where additional rainfall could help crops, water resources and other agricultural activities.

That distinction is important because the province’s drought response extends beyond rice production. Provincial officials have been preparing measures involving crop diversification, drought-resistant planting materials, irrigation support, water storage and assistance to farmers and fisherfolk.

The Technical Working Group meeting brought together representatives of the Department of Agriculture, National Irrigation Administration, Philippine Crop Insurance Corp., Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, Office of the Provincial Veterinarian, Office of the Provincial Agriculturist, Aboitiz InfraCapital and the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines.

The interagency approach reflects the province’s concern that prolonged dryness could affect not only crops but also livestock, fisheries, irrigation and water supplies.

NOT a rainmaker

The operation, however, comes with an important limitation: cloud seeding cannot create rain out of clear skies.

The BSWM, the national government agency mandated to assist in cloud-seeding operations, says the technique involves coordination and monitoring in production areas, watersheds and reservoirs during El Niño or prolonged dry spells.

It conducts joint area assessments before and after operations and coordinates with the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines. The agency also taps technical assistance from the Philippine Air Force.

In practical terms, cloud seeding requires suitable clouds containing enough moisture for the seeding process to have a chance of producing additional rainfall.

That means the success of Bohol’s operation will depend heavily on weather conditions during the scheduled flight hours.

The provincial government therefore faces a race not only against the drought but also against the availability of clouds capable of producing useful rainfall.

PAGASA warns of prolonged El Niño

The operation comes as PAGASA’s assessment of the national climate situation has become increasingly serious.

In its Sept. 23, 2026 climate advisory, PAGASA said a strong El Niño was active in the tropical Pacific and warned that the phenomenon could intensify into a very strong El Niño between September and December 2026, with conditions expected to persist through the first half of 2027.

PAGASA has said El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in parts of the Philippines, raising the risk of dry spells and drought.

Its September agroclimatic outlook also warned that the phenomenon could continue into the first half of 2027 and potentially reach a very strong state before the end of 2026.

PAGASA’s latest soil-moisture assessment showed much of the country in dry conditions during the first 10 days of September, underscoring the water stress associated with the current climate pattern.

For Bohol, the immediate concern is how much additional agricultural damage could accumulate before the rainy conditions needed by farmers return.

The P62.77 million damage estimate is already based on only a fraction of the province’s local governments.

With 38 LGUs still to submit initial assessments, provincial officials expect the damage picture to become clearer — and potentially larger — in the coming weeks.

Bohol’s earlier contingency planning has included drought-resistant crops, irrigation interventions, farm reservoirs, seed storage and other agricultural measures, reports said.

The province’s strategy now depends on whether those measures can keep farms productive while the El Niño episode persists, analysts said.